It’s a good thing to be wrong about …

So it turns out I was wrong in Flatline: This Level Of Social Distancing Has Reached Its Floor to say that we’d probably bottomed out the benefits of the current level of social distancing here in Sonoma County.

Quite wrong, actually.

After a week of roughly level numbers on the Kinsa map, the day that post went up the trendline started curving downwards again:

It dropped from .75% to .3%, just in the time since I’d posted that it was probably as good as it was going to get.

And then after I’d written this post, I checked in and it had dropped even more:

So it’s gone down from .3% to .08% in just the past day. I think at that point it’s safe to say that now it really can’t get substantially lower.

Of course, we have no way of evaluating the quality of this data but if it is what the company says it is, then wowzers.

If we keep this up, the flu season will basically be called off early this year.

Oh, and just for completenes, here’s the County COVID-19 infections graph:

That is very hopeful indeed: we’re still adding a touch above 7 new cases a day, which would mean the doubling period is around 15 days now (whereas it was 3.5 days when I first commented on it).

That’s a substantial improvement.

So, oops indeed.

That’s a very good way to be wrong.

Way to go, Sonoma County; keep it up.

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